From floods in Germany to heatwaves in North America, the harsh summer of 2021 has been flooded with extreme climate events. India has also seen the repercussions in the form of massive floods triggered due to heavy monsoon rainfall in Maharashtra, West Bengal, Karnataka, Rajasthan, and the hilly areas of Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, and Jammu & Kashmir. Recently, Shivpuri district in Madhya Pradesh’s Gwalior received record rainfall of 454.57 millimeters (mm) within a span of 38 hours, which is 55% of the total rainfall the district receives in a year.

According to the Global Flood Database, which analysed 913 flood events in 169 countries between 2000 and 2018, more than 1 lakh people died in India due to flooding and more than 20 crore people got displaced. The data has been released by Cloud to Street–a global flood tracking and risk analytics platform for disaster managers and insurers, with co-authors from NASA, Google Earth Outreach, and other reputed institutions.

The database is crucial since it used satellite imagery at 250-metre resolution rather than modeling maps based on the available ground data. Unlike modeling maps, satellite imagery allows additional analyses of the scope, impact, and trends of recent flooding. 

Most events in the Global Flood Database occurred in Asia, in which India recorded the most events (85), followed by China (52). Researchers said most flood events were caused by heavy rainfall, followed by tropical storms, ice melt or dam breaks. However, despite representing less than 2% of floods, dam breaks had the highest increased incidence in proportion of population exposed.

In the case of India, out of the 85 flood events, 80 events were due to heavy rainfall and the remaining five were due to dam breaks and tropical surges.

Moreover, the database stated that the proportion of population exposed to floods has grown by 24% globally since the turn of the century. Due to increased flooding and population migration, the rise is 10 times higher than scientists previously thought. 

“We estimate that 255–290 million people [about 3% of the global population] have been exposed to at least one observed event since 2000 and three flood events on average [735–892 million total exposures],” it noted.

It also revealed that 2.23 million sq.km were flooded between 2000-2018, affecting between 255 and 290 million people. Increased flood exposure was concentrated in low- and middle-income countries, it noted.

“We found that economic development and people moving into flood-prone areas is significantly increasing the number of people exposed to floods in those regions. Furthermore, increasing flood exposure is rooted in underlying conditions that give vulnerable populations no choice but to settle in flood zones,” said Jonathan Sullivan, post-doctoral scientist at the University of Arizona and research co-author.

By 2030, the model estimated that climate and demographic change will add 25 new countries to the 32 already experiencing increasing floods. In the case of India, the model estimated that the proportion of population exposed to floods grew from 2000 to 2015 and is expected to grow from 2010 to 2030. 

“Using satellite observation data of floods with improved spatial-temporal resolution will help policymakers understand where flood impacts are changing and how best to adapt,“ said lead author, chief science officer and co-founder of Cloud to Street, Beth Tellman. “The Global Flood Database can improve the accuracy of global and local flood models and vulnerability assessments, increase the efficacy of adaptation measures, and deepen our understanding of how climate, land cover change, and floods interact,” she added.

floodsrisks

India’s water shortage is a significant concern as global warming approaches a 1.5-degree threshold. Increased temperatures and monsoon pattern changes brought on by climate change make water scarcity worse, endangering the stability of agriculture and necessities. Urgent action is necessary because unsustainable practices and growing urbanisation deplete water sources. India has to accept the harsh truth that if adequate mitigation measures are not taken, the water problem will worsen and endanger livelihoods and economic stability as temperatures rise and rainfall becomes irregular. Addressing India’s water problems is necessary and existentially critical for the country’s sustainable future in the face of 1.5-degree global warming.

The recent crisis in Bangalore is a frightening indication that the nation’s changing climate, unpredictable monsoons, extreme temperatures, and mismanagement of water bodies are severe hazards to this massive country. Over 1000 years, India has developed an elaborate water system while struggling to fulfill the country’s requirements for agriculture, domestic consumption, and several other uses. However, with a population of over 1.4 billion, those demands have dramatically expanded.

The Precarious Balance 

There is also the ever-stretching delicate balance of India’s water management systems; the sectors of agriculture, domestic consumption, and other industries, which were already in a nuanced relationship of give-and-take, have significantly strained. A 1.4 billion-strong population of India has boosted the demand in all sectors, which has naturally been met with a shrinking availability of water resources. This has happened primarily due to inadequate foresight and planning and often resulted in the depletion of water resources.

Another critical factor responsible for the water crisis in India is changing monsoon patterns. The monsoon season was previously the agricultural boon, but in recent times, it has demonstrated increased unpredictability. Prolonged dry seasons with intermittent heavy rainfall have become more common, disrupting traditional farming patterns and reducing agriculture outputs. This trend endangers the changes in food security and millions of agricultural jobs.

Urgency Amid Climate Trajectory

It is essential to remember one of the most pressing problems that won’t be solved in one of the world’s largest democracies before the upcoming elections- India’s mismanagement of water resources amid the trajectory of rising weather patterns. The recent water crisis in Bangalore was only a tiny warning that made it clear that comprehensive measures to protect India’s water security must be implemented soon to avoid severe climate-induced issues. However, the water problem in India is much more multi-layered and complex than it might seem. It is not limited to any particular issue, such as rapid urbanisation, industrial growth, agriculture, and insufficient infrastructure; climate change also exacerbates these and other problems. Unpredictable monsoons and rising temperatures only exacerbate water scarcity, undermining people’s and the economy’s most basic needs, such as agriculture and industry.

Bangalore, sometimes called India’s Silicon Valley, just had a severe water crisis, highlighting how susceptible urban areas are to water scarcity. The city is vulnerable to the whims of climate change because it relies on unsustainable groundwater extraction and inadequate rainwater gathering facilities. If pre-emptive steps are not taken, such situations will likely grow more frequent and severe as temperatures rise and rainfall becomes more erratic.

 The mishandled water resources of India have far-reaching consequences beyond the cities. A large percentage of the population is employed in agriculture, which makes it especially vulnerable. With unpredictable weather, traditional farming methods that depend on monsoon rains are no longer sustainable. Crop failures result from the challenges farmers face due to droughts, floods, and declining groundwater levels. Furthermore, the water shortage also affects India’s industrial sector, the main engine of the country’s economic expansion. Water is essential to many businesses for cooling, sanitary, and manufacturing operations. In addition to endangering output, a diminishing water supply also risks the livelihoods of millions working in these industries.

Resolving India’s Water Dilemma

India’s water dilemma requires a multipronged strategy combining strong policy judgments and scientific understanding. First and foremost, better governance and management of water resources are desperately needed. This entails bolstering legal frameworks, funding water-saving innovations, and encouraging environmentally friendly behaviour across industries.

Additionally, a concentrated effort must be made to improve the water infrastructure, especially in urban areas. Reducing the burden on current water supplies and enhancing resilience against future water shortages can be achieved by investing in rainwater gathering, wastewater recycling, and effective distribution networks. Promoting climate-resilient farming techniques is crucial for the agriculture industry. This means encouraging crops that can withstand drought, putting effective irrigation systems into place, and giving farmers access to accurate weather reports and agricultural advice services. 

More coordination between central agencies and state and local government is required in policy. Climate change is an international issue, and cooperative efforts across political divides are necessary for efficient water management.  Furthermore, the public’s involvement and awareness are essential for promoting change. Encouraging community-led projects, changing people’s behaviours, and raising awareness of the value of water conservation can all help people take responsibility for local water resources.

Prioritising India’s Water Security: An Agenda for National Election

India is at a crossroads, and the next election could offer a chance to put water security at the top of the national agenda. Political leaders need to acknowledge how serious the situation is and pledge to take decisive action to address the underlying causes of India’s water crisis. Ensuring the security of India’s water resources is crucial and needs to be a top priority for the forthcoming national election. India confronts many obstacles in providing its people with access to safe and dependable water sources because of its expanding population, industrialisation, and the effects of climate change.

Enhancing water infrastructure ought to come first and foremost. This covers expenditures for wastewater treatment and systems for storing and distributing water. Supporting agriculture, which uses many water resources, will also need upgrading and growing irrigation networks. India needs to take immediate action to address the issues brought on by climate change in light of the Bangalore water crisis. India may forge ahead with more proactive policymaking and scientific expertise in tandem with a comprehensive approach to create a more sustainable and

In addition, encouraging water-saving measures is crucial. Water wastage may be greatly decreased by promoting efficient water use among individuals, communities, and industry. India can protect its water supplies by implementing rainwater gathering technology, encouraging effective irrigation practices, and increasing public awareness of the value of water conservation.  Moreover, initiatives ought to concentrate on revitalising and safeguarding aquatic environments. Many rivers and lakes are depleted and contaminated by sewage, industrial discharge, and encroachment. Stricter laws, the promotion of waste treatment facilities, and awareness-raising initiatives can all aid in resolving these problems. 

Anjal Prakash is a Clinical Associate Professor (Research) at Bharti Institute of Public Policy, Indian School of Business (ISB). He teaches sustainability at ISB and contributes to IPCC reports. 

Water resource management Heatwaves India

After much speculation of a weak early onset, Southwest Monsoon 2022 finally arrived over its first post, Kerala on May 29. Normal onset date of four-month long season over Indian mainland is June 1, with an error margin of +/- 4 days. 

Pre-Monsoon season looked promising, with rains peaking during the second half of May across the Southern Peninsular region. These rains could be attributed to two cyclones Asani and Karim in Bay of Bengal and Indian Ocean, respectively which pulled Monsoon over Andaman Sea on May 16, six days early against its normal date of May 22. 

Image Courtesy: IMD 

However, Monsoon made a weak onset over Kerala. Subsequently, the progress of Monsoon was lull and remained sluggish for good 10 days. Monsoon current finally picked up pace after June 10 and have been progressing steadily thereafter, but still lagging behind the schedule. As of June 20, the Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) is passing through Porbandar on the western side and from Churk on eastern side. Normally, by June 20, NLM should have reached Uttar Pradesh along with parts of Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh and even Jammu and Kashmir and most part of South Gujarat.  

State run, Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted normal Monsoon rains to the tune of 103% of the Long Period Average of 870 mm for 2022. They had earlier predicted 99% of LPA in April, but with La Nina likely to stay throughout the Monsoon made them revise the forecast. 

Criteria of Monsoon

True to its reputation, even after so many years of tracking, monsoon continues to play truant and tricky.  While IMD claims meeting all the criteria needed for Monsoon arrival, private players questioned rainfall criterion not being met before the big announcement. As per IMD, criteria for declaring onset of Monsoon are: 

1. Rainfall: Over 60% of 14 stations (Minicoy, Amini, Thiruvananthapuram, Punalur, Kollam, Allapuzha, Kottayam, Kochi, Thrissur, Kozhikode, Thalassery, Kannur, Kudulu and Mangalore) should receive 2.5 mm or more rain on consecutive 2 days.

2. Wind Field: Depth of westerlies should be maintained up to 600 hpa in the box equator to Lat. 10°N and Long. 55°E to 80°E.

3. Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR): OLR value should be below 200 wm-2

In the past also, questions have been raised over several criteria of Monsoon, from onset to arrival dates of Monsoon over different places to retreat of Monsoon, given the changing climatic conditions. IMD made the following changes in 2019. 

Image Courtesy: IMD 

Progress of Monsoon

Southwest Monsoon progresses in pulses and thus, waxing and waning of Monsoon current is natural. After giving some heavy showers on the pretext of Cyclone Asani, the Monsoon current lost strength. According to meteorologists, the Monsoon needed some time to gather energy before it became active again. Also, other atmospheric conditions were not in sync for an active Monsoon onset. 

The weak phase of the monsoon continued till June 9 on account of the inactive Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). ITCZ is a trough of low pressure near the equator that is responsible for overshooting Monsoon systems in the Indian Ocean, taking it forward. 

In the absence of any significant Monsoon low or depression in Bay of Bengal or an offshore vortex over Arabian Sea, rainfall deficiency kept on increasing further.

However, what holds relevance is the spatial distribution of rainfall. Lately, the number of rainy days have decreased however the cumulative rainfall across the country has been normal to above normal since the last three consecutive years. According to forecasters, days of heavy rainfall have increased due to climate change. 

“Though it depends from year to year, climate change definitely has a role to play. The number of rainy days has gone down over the years. Meanwhile, there has been an increase in extreme weather events. We now see short but intense bouts of rain, sometimes around 100 mm rainfall in just 24 hours. Earlier, this much precipitation would occur over a period of 10 to 15 days,” said Mahesh Palawat, Vice President-Meteorology and Climate Change, Skymet Weather.

What lies ahead for Monsoon 2022 

La Nina seems to be a saviour, which is linked with good Monsoon rains over India. Besides, the other two atmospheric phenomena affecting Monsoon are positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). While MJO is likely to oscillate towards the Indian Ocean by mid of June, enhancing some rains, but IOD would continue to be negative. 

“Conversely, a strong IOD carries the ability to subjugate, otherwise dwindling monsoon rains.  The current monsoon season 2022 has also commenced under the shadow of a negative and growing IOD index.  However, cooling of the Pacific Ocean is promising continuation of La Nina conditions well into the 2nd half of season.  Therefore, monsoon 2022 is expected to ride over favorable La Nina, albeit battling adverse effects of negative IOD,” said G P Sharma, President- Meteorology and Climate Change, Skymet Weather.

As per the models, La Niña is favored to continue through the end of the year, even spilling into 2023 but with declining trend. La Niña is most likely to decrease into the Northern Hemisphere by late summer with a 52% chance in July-September 2022. However indices would increase slightly through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022 with 58-59% chance.

Image Courtesy: NOAA

Compound impacts

Change in weather patterns have socio-economic impacts in terms of food inflation, unemployment, and industrial demand. Good farm output keeps food inflation in check. The Southwest Monsoon accounts for 70% of India’s annual rainfall, making it crucial for the agricultural economy, which is 11% of gross domestic product (GDP). Large area of the country are still rainfed and completely rely on Monsoon for a good crop yield.

The last decade has seen significantly varying Monsoon patterns from below normal to above normal rains and even drought (as shown in the following table). The fickleness of Monsoon continues to hound economists, forecasters and policymakers. 

With a lull in the progress of Monsoon, experts have already started raising concern over agricultural output. “Delay in the arrival of Monsoon, especially over Northwest India, may aggravate water and food security. The region is already battling deficit rainfall between March-May amidst a series of severe heat waves. While Monsoon can pick up the momentum any time, crop loss due  to the delay of onset of Monsoon may not necessarily be covered up with rains in the pending time.” said Dr Roxy Mathew Koll, Senior Scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology. 

Late onset over Central India and further into Northwest India would pave the way for more heatwaves. Usually with the timely onset of Monsoon over eastern and central parts, severe heat waves take a back seat. Humid winds reaching up to the region trigger pre-Monsoon rain and thundershowers, bringing respite in June. First 10 days of June 2022 have been marred by severe heatwave conditions across Northwest India, along with parts of Central India. 

The impacts of global warming are now at our doorstep. This section covers stories of communities and regions that are battling extreme events, climate-induced displacement and migration, and coming up with innovative ways to adapt to their changing environment.

We focus on India’s climate news and developments, which include impacts on agriculture, environment, health and economy.

Browse stories of climate impacts region-wise

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The loss and damage fund is a global financial package designed for the countries facing the cascading effects of climate change. The fund aims to ensure the rescue and rehabilitation of such countries. The loss and damage fund was first announced at the COP (Conference of Parties) 27 in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, last year. However, it was formalized only at COP 28 that rich and poor countries did manage to overcome their differences and agree on key points of the fund.

Fifteen developed countries and a developing nation (COP28 host UAE) have made funding pledges so far. The initial funding is estimated to be $475 million, out of which the host UAE pledged $100 million, the European Union promised $275 million, $17.5 million came from the US, and $10 million from Japan.

Why and how was the Loss and Damage Fund organised?

The term refers to the compensation by rich nations, whose industrial growth led to global warming and drove the world into a climate crisis. It was demanded that these nations pay poorer nations, whose carbon footprint is low but are facing the brunt of climate change impacts such as heatwaves, rising sea levels, floods, droughts, and increased cyclogenesis, to name a few.

The fund aims to give financial assistance to rebuild and be rehabilitated. It differs from climate adaptation funds because loss and damage refer to a situation where communities can no longer adapt to climatic impacts or prepare for it because the damage has already been done.

How much damage has been caused by industrialization?

The Industrial Era that started in 1850 disrupted Earth’s natural mechanism of the production and absorption of greenhouse gases. The United States, United Kingdom, and the European Union are said to be responsible for 50% of all emissions. If we bring Russia, Canada, Japan, and Australia into the picture, the figure totals 65%, accounting for two-thirds of all emissions. China, the world’s biggest emitter in the last 15 years, is responsible for 30% of global emissions yearly. Compared to all, India is only responsible for 4% of historical emissions.

How much loss and damage is the world facing?

In the last 20 years, 55 vulnerable countries have reportedly suffered losses worth $525 billion on account of the climate crisis. In fact, the number is expected to increase by 2030. According to the report by IPCC, losses and damages are going to amplify further as global warming continues to rise. The impacts will continue to be unequally distributed, impacting the developing nations the most. In fact, socially and financially weaker sections would be the hardest ones to be hit.

How big is the Loss and Damage Fund and how will it operate?

The World Bank will monitor the loss and damage funds initially, with the source of funds being rich or developed nations as well as some developing countries. However, the scale or the replenishment cycle of the fund remains unclear, but one thing is clear: the world needs several trillion dollars to deal with the climate crisis.

Previously, the developing nations were not keen to be part of this fund, but at the insistence of the World Bank, so as to avoid sole control over the funds by richer nations over the finances, developing nations accepted this deal.

COP28 Loss and Damage Fund Climate Change Climate Crisis Global Warming

The recent incidents of ‘cloudbursts’ at the holy shrine of Amarnath in Ganderbal district of Jammu & Kashmir and in Kullu district in Himachal Pradesh, which combined led to almost 20 deaths and many people missing, have raised questions on the frequency of these incidents. Cloudbursts are not a new phenomenon for Himalayan states during the Monsoon season, however their growing intensity has been a concern for weather experts. According to scientists, both the frequency as well as the time of occurrence have altered over the last few years due to human-induced climate change.

Going by definition, a cloud burst is declared when a localised area receives very heavy rainfall upto the tune of 100 mm or more within an hour along with squally winds and lightning. Meanwhile, a rainfall event is defined as a mini cloud burst if a certain area records more than 50 mm in two consecutive hours. This feature is commonly observed along the southern Himalayan slopes of the Indian subcontinent during Monsoon months.

According to research, cloudbursts are associated with thunderstorms where strong updrafts from intense vortices on a smaller scale tend to hold up a large amount of water and upon sudden cessation results in catastrophic rainfall in a short period of time concentrated over a limited geographical area.

According to the Ministry of Earth Sciences’ Assessment of climate change over the Indian Region, there is a rise in short-span high-intensity rain occurrences (short-lived cloudburst and mini-cloudbursts) along the west coast of India (5 per decade) and along the foothills of western Himalayas (1 per decade) during the 1969–2015 period (high confidence).

With Monsoon 2022 picking up pace in July, the country has already witnessed incidents of cloudbursts. Malana and Manikaran in Kullu district of Himachal Pradesh reported a cloudburst on July 6. Although it was not a cloudburst over Amarnath cave on July 9 but meteorologists are very much in tandem over a cloudburst in the upper region that triggered flash floods.

“With Monsoon covering the entire country, moisture laden easterly winds have been travelling from lower levels, reaching up to Western Himalayas. These winds have been colliding with the westerly winds flowing across the upper levels. Convergence of the winds flowing from opposite directions leads to formation of cumulonimbus clouds. In the hilly region, winds do not tend to travel at a faster pace and sometimes get trapped over a certain area, bringing torrential showers and even a cloud burst. Similar situation was witnessed near Amarnath Shrine and Kullu,” said Mahesh Palawat, VP- Meteorology and Climate Change, Skymet Weather.

Climate change fingerprint on more intense and frequent cloudburst events

Frequency of cloudburst events in the Western Himalayan region has been on a continuous rise due to faster evaporation rates from glacial lakes at high altitudes, as a consequence of global warming. 

Increased temperatures and warming oceans have led to higher evaporation, resulting in more humid winds. This is triggering a rise in high impact rainfall events. South Asian countries like India, Pakistan, Bangladesh are particularly vulnerable due to their proximity to the rapidly warming Indian Ocean in the south and rapidly melting glaciers in the north.

“Rising temperatures have led to an overall increase in moisture levels in the atmosphere. This is because warm air can hold more moisture and for a longer period. With this, strong Monsoon winds from Bay of Bengal now carry a lot more moisture than ever and resulting in heavy rains. Global warming has led to climatic shifts over South Asia since the 1950s. Now instead of moderate rains spread out, we have long dry periods interspersed with short spells of heavy rains. Thus, we do not witness rain for very long but when it rains, it dumps all the moisture in a few hours to a few days,” said Dr Roxy Mathew Koll, Climate Scientist, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune and IPCC author for Working Group I report, The Physical Science Basis.

Scientific evidence has already confirmed that extreme rainfall events are going to get intense and frequent. Cloudburst could be more as well as intense due to global warming, although changes in severe convective storms (thunderstorms, hail storms, cloudbursts) due to variability driven by climate change, are still a matter of research due to historical data which cannot be either compared or is insufficiently monitored. 

The twenty eighth session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP  28) this year opened with a discussion on the Loss and Damage (L&D) Fund. A global financial package aimed at ensuring the rescue and rehabilitation of countries reeling under the disastrous consequences of climate change, the L&D fund is a compensatory amount that rich nations, whose industrial growth has resulted in global warming and driven the planet into a climate crisis, must pay to poor nations, whose carbon footprint is low but are yet facing the brunt of rising sea levels, floods, crippling droughts, and intense cyclones. 

The initial contributions pledged by countries to help vulnerable countries cope with the impact of climate change stand at $475  million — host UAE pledged $100 million, the European Union promised $275 million, $17.5 million from the US, and $10 million from Japan. However, the current pledges seem woefully inadequate in the light of the current losses estimated in a report titled “Loss and Damage Today: How climate change is impacting output and capital”, published by the Climate Hub, University of Delaware.

Climate change fuelling uneven losses in Gross Domestic Product

Climate change is leading to mounting economic losses around the world with developing countries bearing its brunt, finds the study. Estimates across countries reveal declining economic output and capital wealth due to a warming climate. 

Drawing on 58 economic models, this analysis considers a population-weighted average of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) losses, which accounts for the impacts borne by the average person within the country. Globally, climate change has resulted in a population-weighted GDP loss of 6.3% in 2022 including direct, spillover and capital losses. Least developed countries face an average population-weighted GDP loss of 8.3%, with Southeast Asia and Southern Africa being the worst hit, with countries losing an average 14.1% and 11.2% of their GDP, respectively. The total GDP loss to India in 2022 was 8% compared to a world without climate change. 

On the contrary, many high-income countries continue to experience net gains, including an average increase of 4.7% to the GDP of European countries. The US saw a neutral effect, and China experienced a 1.8% loss, equal to the global average. These figures underscore how climate change exacerbates global inequalities by disproportionately affecting developing nations who made least contributions to emissions.

Global Capital Losses due to climate change

Low and middle-income countries have experienced $2.1 trillion in produced capital losses due to climate change which pose significant challenges to their long-term economic resilience and growth. As of 2022, India has also suffered a cumulative decline of 7.9% in capital wealth, produced by climate impacts on human-produced capital (eg, infrastructure). 

With GDP and capital losses combined, the analysis finds that low and middle-income countries have experienced a total loss of $21 trillion in the last 30 years between 1992 and 2022. For India, the cumulative losses stand at 3555 billion dollars.  These are, however, conservative estimates excluding non-market losses.

Why are poorer nations suffering more?

While low-income countries and tropical regions reel under huge economic debacles, many wealthier nations are far less affected or maybe even benefiting from climate change for the time being. “A reduction in GDP may imply the long-term destruction of productive human-built and natural capital” for developing nations, highlights the ‘Loss and Damage’ report. In the current decades of global warming, the frequency and intensity of heat waves, droughts, and other weather extremes have shot up exponentially across the globe. In lower-income, tropical, and agriculturally-dependent countries, existing losses from climate change are expected to be significantly high. 

Agriculture and manufacturing are more sensitive to climate risks than service industries. Outdoor workers are particularly vulnerable, such as those engaged in agriculture, fishing, forestry, mining, and construction. High temperatures undermine their health leading to productivity loss which ultimately translates into lower  economic output and declining GDP. Other climate extremes such as flooding, can damage infrastructure leading to tangible losses. Furthermore, tropical countries which are already hot are estimated to experience greater losses for each additional degree of warming.

This incisive analysis armours impacted countries with high-quality estimates of their losses which could serve as a basis for them to claim just compensations from the global north.

COP28 Loss and Damage Fund Climate Change Climate impacts

A new research paper by Nature, ‘Quantifying the human cost of global warming’ suggested that current climate policies will expose more than a fifth of humanity to dangerously hot temperatures by 2100. The study was conducted by researchers at the Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, associated with the Earth Commission, and Nanjing University.

Population growth is projected to be highest in places at risk of dangerous heat, especially India and Nigeria. Exposure to dangerous heat increases dramatically at 1.2°C, just above current global warming, and increases by about 140 million for every 0.1°C of further warming.

Assuming a future population of 9.5 billion people, India would have the greatest population, more than 600 million, exposed at 2.7°C global warming. At 1.5°C, this figure would be far lower, at about 90 million.

Nigeria would follow with the second-largest heat-exposed population at 2.7°C global warming, more than 300 million. At 1.5°C warming, this would be less than 40 million.

India and Nigeria already show “hotspots” of dangerous temperatures. At 2.7°C, almost 100% of some countries including Burkina Faso and Mali will be dangerously hot for humans. Brazil would have the largest land area exposed to dangerous heat, despite almost no area being exposed at 1.5 °C. Australia and India would also experience massive increases in the area exposed.

According to the study, the current policies are projected to result in 2.7°C warming by the end of the century, despite the Paris Agreement pledge to limit global warming well below 2°C (compared to pre-industrial levels).

60 million people are already exposed to dangerous heat, with average temperature of 29°C or higher. The number is likely to increase manifolds with global mean temperatures also increasing further. Two billion people, 22% of the projected end-of-century population – would be exposed to this at 2.7°C of global warming.

The study strongly suggested that limiting warming to 1.5°C would leave 5% exposed, saving a sixth of humanity from dangerous heat compared to 2.7°C of warming.

Also, the lifetime emissions of 3.5 average global citizens today – or just 1.2 US citizens – expose one future person to dangerous heat. This highlights the inequity of climate crisis, as these future heat-exposed people will live in places where emissions today are around half the global average.

In “worst-case scenarios” of 3.6°C or even 4.4°C global warming, half of the world’s population could be left outside the climate niche, posing what the researchers call an “existential risk”.

“The costs of global warming are often expressed in financial terms, but our study highlights the phenomenal human cost of failing to tackle the climate emergency. For every 0.1°C of warming above present levels, about 140 million more people will be exposed to dangerous heat. This reveals both the scale of the problem and the importance of decisive action to reduce carbon emissions. Limiting global warming to 1.5°C rather than 2.7°C would mean five times fewer people in 2100 being exposed to dangerous heat,” said Professor Tim Lenton, director of the Global Systems Institute at the University of Exeter.

Although less than 1% of humanity currently lives in places of dangerous heat exposure, the study shows climate change has already put 9% of the global population (more than 600 million people) outside the niche.

Heatwave in India Global Warming Climate ChangeClimate impacts in India

Not all climate change impacts are rapid. This section examines the effects that emerge gradually over time, such as desertification, rising sea levels, coastal erosion, and droughts, which are just as devastating as the immediate effects, if not more.