Impacts / Slow onset disasters
Climate change will continue to alter atmospheric circulations and precipitation patterns, subsequently influencing the occurrence of weather patterns that worsen air quality, especially over the Indo-Gangetic Plains.
Uttarakhand has witnessed extreme weather conditions over the last two months. While June witnessed record-breaking maximum temperatures, July has been witnessing spells of extremely heavy Monsoon rains triggering flash floods and landslides.
So far in the Monsoon season from June 1-July 10, the cumulative rainfall for Uttarakhand is 328.6 mm against the normal of 295.4 mm, resulting in an 11% surplus.
Data Source: IMD
According to scientists, these extreme weather conditions can be attributed to climate change. Humidity is the prime factor behind the increasing likelihood of heavier rainfall and even more dangerous heat waves. Both humidity and temperature are the twin pillars of climate change.
July began on a rainy note and as of July 10, the Himalayan state has already witnessed double the normal average rainfall it receives. From July 1-10, Uttarakhand has recorded 239.1 mm of rain in comparison to its normal average of 118.6 mm. With this, the state has a rain surplus of 102%.
At present, all 13 districts of the state are rainfall surplus in July, pushing the Himalayan state towards surplus rainfall from the deficit in June. The normal average rainfall for Uttarakhand for July stands at 417.8 mm.
Bageshwar district recorded the highest rainfall to the tune of 357.2 mm against the normal of 77.7 mm, leading to a rain surplus of 360% between July 1-9. This is followed by Udham Singh Nagar and Champawat districts, which recorded rainfall surplus of 280% and 272%, respectively during the same time period. Following is the district-wise rainfall recorded from July 1 to July 10.
Data Source: IMD
The atmosphere, land, and oceans are all warming at a faster rate. The warmer it becomes, the more moisture the atmosphere can hold. This has led to more evaporation of water from the Earth’s surface. The increased holding capacity of the air, then results in more droplets and heavier rainfall, sometimes in a shorter space of time and over a smaller area.
“Rainfall in Uttarakhand has been the result of the alignment of several Monsoon weather systems. There was Western disturbance over North Pakistan and its adjoining areas, a trough was extending from Central Pakistan to Uttarakhand and easterly winds from the Bay of Bengal were feeding moisture over Uttarakhand. All these resulted in intense clouding and subsequent heavy rainfall. However, the extreme heavy rainy spells are a result of climate change. There has been an increase in the moisture in the atmosphere due to the rise in global average temperature. This leads to formation of intense clouds, triggering heavy rains. With temperatures rising constantly, these spells of intense rain would be more common,” said Mahesh Palawat, VP- Meteorology and Climate Change, Skymet Weather.
There has been an increase in the average relative humidity across India because of the rapid rise in land and sea temperatures. According to the Clausius-Clapeyron equation, the air can generally hold around 7% more moisture for every 1-℃ temperature rise. Therefore, for relative humidity to stay the same under 1degreeC of warming, the moisture content in the air also needs to increase by 7%. In theory, if there are no limiting factors, then this is the rate of increase we expect.
2024 came as a surprise to meteorologists and scientists as day temperatures above 40 ℃ were recorded on several days in a Himalayan state. Climate change-influenced weather extremes over the hilly region have been posing numerous environmental challenges, and threatening livelihoods.
The Summer of 2024 was a punishing one, with severe heat waves gripping almost all districts of Uttarakhand. In June, mercury in Dehradun crossed the 40-℃ mark for 11 consecutive days from June 9-20. Meanwhile, in May, temperature in the city soared above 40 degrees on eight days.
On at least five occasions in May, the hill station of Mukteshwar recorded temperatures of nearly 30 degrees Celsius, the threshold of a heatwave in the hilly terrain. June has been the harshest for the town as it saw maximum temperature settling above 30 degrees for 10 days. On June 15, Mukteshwar recorded a maximum temperature of 32.2℃, the highest in 10 years. This was close to the all-time high record of 32.5℃ which was observed on June 16, 2012.
Pantnagar also broke its 10-year record, with a day maximum of 41.8℃ on June 19. It has recorded 10 consecutive days of above 40℃ temperatures from June 11-20. From the very beginning of May, temperatures in the city settled in the late 30s, but the last 4 days saw mercury surpassing 40℃.
According to meteorologists, the steep rise in temperatures could be attributed to prolonged dry spells and less precipitation. Pre-monsoon rainfall activities remained almost absent and erratic.
“Waxing and waning of rains is normal but in the absence of these activities, climate change plays a key role. Prolonged dry periods during May and June led to a rise in mercury. Global warming has been impacting the weather patterns making heatwaves intense and rain patterns erratic. May is the peak summer month and June brings in relief. However, 2024 has seen temperatures soaring in June, even settling beyond 40 degrees for days together. The impact of receding El Nino has further worsened the situation, which aided further warming. This shows how global warming is impacting the weather. If global average temperatures continue to rise, this would become more frequent as well as intense,” said Palawat.
Data Source: Ogimet
According to the state-run Indian Meteorological Department, a hilly region experiences heatwave when the maximum temperature is over 30℃, with 4.5 ℃ above normal for two consecutive days.
The temperature rise in Uttrakhand generally occurs in March, and the maximum temperature is observed from May to mid-June. During this time of the year, the mean maximum temperature in the southern Uttarakhand region ranges between 34 °C to 38 °C, and the mean minimum remains at 20 °C to 24 °C.
According to a report “Evaluation of Observed and Future Climate Change Projection for Uttarakhand, India”, the maximum temperature may likely increase from 0.42 °C to 3.07 °C from MC (Middle of Century) to EC (End of Century) in the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) 4.5 and from 0.83 °C to 5.49 °C in the RCP 8.5. In addition, the minimum temperature may increase from 0.80 °C to 3.25 °C from MC to EC in the RCP 4.5 and from 0.30 °C to 5.86 °C from MC to EC in the RCP 8.5.
It is observed that the annual average maximum and minimum temperatures may likely increase for Uttarakhand by more than 5 °C. Notably, a decrease in the pre-monsoon precipitation at EC and a higher increase in the maximum temperature during the monsoon season are observed. An increase in the maximum temperatures along with precipitation may lead to a rise in the frequency of the monsoon season’s extreme rainfall events.
The very high maximum temperature during summer days makes the area vulnerable to frequent forest fires. According to a report, over the hilly region of Uttarakhand, the number of very warm days/nights is increasing, whereas the number of extremely cold days/nights is dropping. The Uttarakhand Himalayas have witnessed an increase in weather extremes over the past four decades.
In Uttarakhand, the peak fire season typically begins in late March and lasts around 11 weeks. There were 247 VIIRS (Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite) fire alerts reported between 1st of January 2024 and 3rd of June 2024 considering high confidence alerts only. This is normal compared to previous years going back to 2012.
“There is a direct relation between extreme heat and forest fires. While we do not deny the fact that forest fires are often man-made, what we saw this year gave us a clear picture of how rising temperatures will exacerbate the situation. Extended dry period paved the way for rise in temperature as well as accumulation of dry leaves. All these factors led to faster dissemination of fire, covering larger areas and resulting in tree cover loss. Putting measures in places well in time can help in saving the forest fires but definitely we need to curb greenhouse gas emissions,” said Rajnish Ranjan, Disaster Management Expert.
From 2001 to 2023, Uttarakhand lost 1.18 kha of tree cover from fires and 19.5 kha from all other drivers of tree cover loss. The year with the most tree cover loss due to fires during this period was 2009 with 217 ha lost — 23% of all tree cover loss for that year.
Image Source: Global Forest Watch
According to the data from Global Forest Watch, Nainital had the highest rate of tree cover loss from 2001 to 2023 due to fires with an average of 12 ha lost per year.
Data Source: Global Forest Watch
In Uttarakhand, the warming temperature trend is worsening forest fire events to a greater extent. Human-caused climate change is influencing weather and climatic extremes in higher elevation places, and many recent studies have reported on the increasingly prevalent elevation-dependent warming (EDW). EDW influences the Himalayan rivers and glaciers (e.g., changes in the glacial mass balance, river discharge, snowfall, etc.), which is the only water source for the hilly region’s livelihood.
Uttarakhand Extreme Weather Forest Fires
The monsoon rainfall exhibits a strong relationship with the El Niño, but is different across regions over India and has varied over time frames during the last century, found a new study. Researchers from the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, and the Indian Institute of Science Education and Research (IISER), Mohali, reported a significant change in El Niño-monsoon relationship over north, central and south India. They found that while the El Niño-monsoon relationship has stayed moderately strong and stable for south India, it has become exceptionally stronger over time for north India, while it has considerably weakened and become non-existent over the central Indian region (core monsoon zone) in the recent decades.
ENSO-monsoon correlation over different timeframes, across different regions.
El Niño-monsoon relationship
The Indian monsoon has waxed and waned over time. The year-to-year fluctuations of the monsoon are largely modulated by the fluctuations in ocean temperatures in the Pacific. These oscillations in the Pacific Ocean are dominated by the El Niño and La Niña, the warm and cool water phases in the central-east Pacific, known as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
Generally, an El Niño event weakens the trade winds that blow across the Pacific. These trade winds are connected to the moisture-laden monsoon winds over India, and thereby dampens the monsoon too, reducing rainfall over the Indian subcontinent. Historically, at least half of the El Niño years were monsoon droughts (where the all-India monsoon rainfall is less than 10% of the long-term average).
152 years of all India summer monsoon rainfall (1871–2022). Drought years (below -10% departure) are marked in red colour and wet years (above 10% departure) are marked in dark blue colour. El Niño and La Niña conditions for the monsoon season are marked using red and blue dots. Source: Study
Regional variability over time
The report said that the ENSO impact over the Indian subcontinent is not the same everywhere. The relationship between ENSO and monsoon has not remained the same throughout the period from 1901 to the present. Researchers noticed that the ENSO-monsoon relationship started getting stronger from 1901-1940, became stable from 1941-1980 and then weakened 1981 onwards.
According to the study, these changes in the ENSO-monsoon relationship are regionally non-uniform. Over south India, there is no considerable variation in the ENSO-monsoon relationship. Whereas over north India, the study said, the ENSO-monsoon relationship is becoming strong in recent decades. On the contrary, association between the rainfall over central India (core monsoon zone) and ENSO has diminished in the recent decades.
The monsoon rainfall is also influenced by the strength of the monsoon trough and related changes in monsoon depressions, the study added. The monsoon trough and depression related variability has emerged as the primary cause of rainfall variability over central India, surpassing the dominance of ENSO. For the rainfall over south India, the influence of ENSO and strength of monsoon trough and depressions have been consistent over the entire period.
The study found that over north India, rainfall variability is increasingly dependent on ENSO, while the role of the monsoon trough and depressions is decreasing. This may be due to the decreasing strength of the monsoon due to Indian Ocean warming, and the weakening reach of the monsoon depressions into the north Indian region in recent decades.
The way forward
“Monsoon seasonal prediction depends a lot on how the El Niño is simulated by the forecast model. A strong and steady ENSO-monsoon correlation over north and south India means that this relationship can be used for improved monsoon forecasts over these regions. Meanwhile, we should note that the ENSO dominance over the core monsoon zone is weak, which means that seasonal prediction over this region has become less predictable in the recent decades. Other factors like Indian Ocean warming should be monitored for the core monsoon zone, due to its impact on the strength of the monsoon trough and the depressions,” said the study lead Roxy Mathew Koll, IITM.
“This year so far, the impact of ENSO is limited as the atmospheric teleconnection is weak, but the impact of El Nino might be more dominant in the second half of the monsoon”, said Vineet Kumar Singh, co-author, IITM.
The article was first published in CarbonCopy
El Nino and Monsoon in India Monsoon 2023El Nino in Pacific Ocean
The Himalayan state of Uttarakhand has been in the eye of the ongoing climate crisis for several decades. The state has been battling all possible forms of climate change impacts ranging from flooding to drought to forest fires to name a few. Both slow onset and extreme weather events have declined agricultural productivity in the state. Climate risks coupled with unsustainable development are posing serious threats to the mountain-dependent communities.
Uttarakhand has witnessed a rise of 0.46°C in mean annual temperature between 1911 and 2011 and it still continues to rise at an amplified rate of warming at higher elevations. It is a proven fact that higher altitudes are experiencing more rapid and acute temperature shifts as compared to lower-lying areas. Temperatures in hill districts, such as Uttarkashi, Chamoli, Rudraprayag, and Pithoragarh have increased more substantially than in Haridwar, Dehradun, and Pauri Garhwal.
In the predominantly agrarian state of Uttarakhand, nearly 71% of the population relies on rainfed agriculture, practiced through terrace farming on hill slopes. Reduced crop yield and mounting production costs amidst dwindling profits mar the prospects of hill cultivation in the state, with farmers staring at losses.
Shrinking Acreage of Food Crops
Over the last century, there has been significant fall and variability in average annual rainfall in Uttarakhand with hill districts becoming drier. However, high-intensity rainfall extremes of shorter duration continue to loom large. In the last decade, the yield of paddy has decreased due to insufficient rainfall at the time of transplantation while warmer winters have reduced wheat production. Extreme rainfall events erode topsoil productivity and damage standing crops. The area under food grain cultivation in the state shrunk from 970.14 thousand hectares in 2005–06 to 883.93 thousand hectares in 2014–15 with higher altitudes experiencing a larger dip in agricultural production as compared to the plains.
According to a report, reduction in streamflow due to glacier retreat or reduced snow cover has led to reduced water availability for irrigation of crops and declining agricultural yields in several mountain areas. Rising air temperatures increase crop evapotranspiration, thus increasing water demand for crop production to maintain optimal yield.
Declining Apple Production Amidst Soaring Costs
‘Elevation-dependent warming’ patterns in the state lead to changes in the snow line where mountain elevations that were earlier covered with snow may become snow-free. Warmer temperatures in the upper climbs of the Himalayas along with decreasing snowfall and receding snow line have sounded death knell for apple cultivators of Kumaon. Once a leading producer of apples in India, the state has seen a steep decline in apple production from 123.228 tonnes in 2013 to 64.881 tonnes in 2023. Earlier grown at an altitude of 6000 ft, farmers have been forced to shift apple cultivation to higher altitudes (6,500 ft – 7,000 ft) with optimum snowfall. Orange and apricot have also shifted from 4,500 ft to 6,000 ft.
Varieties of Millets on the Brink of Extinction
The state was once home to a rich repository of agrobiodiversity with over 40 indigenous millets and coarse cereals, many of which are nearing extinction. Repeated crop failures from erratic monsoons and lighter snowfall are discouraging farmers from investing in the cultivation of local millet varieties like foxtail millet and flaxseed. The yield and area under cultivation of finger millets (ragi), barnyard millet and barley have fallen drastically between 2012 and 2021 according to the Department of Agriculture, Uttarakhand.
A. Declining Area of Cultivation of Millets between 2012-2021
Fig A: The area under cultivation of Barnyard millet has reduced by 34% from 56870 hectares in 2012-13 to 37594 hectares in 2021-22. The area under cultivation finger millet cultivation has reduced by 31% from 113210 hectares in 2012-13 to 77927 hectares in 2021-22. The area under cultivation of barley has reduced by 15% from 20702 hectares in 2012-13 to 17514 in 2021-22. Source: Department of Agriculture, Government of Uttarakhand
B. Declining Yield of Millets between 2012-2022
Fig B: The yield of barnyard millet has reduced by 20% from 75929 tonnes in 2012-13 to 60569 tonnes in 2021-22. The yield of finger millet cultivation has reduced by 27% from 157792 tonnes in 2012-13 to 115125 tonnes in 2021-22. The yield of barley has reduced by 11% from 28222 tonnes in 2012-13 to 25256 tonnes in 2021-22. Source: Department of Agriculture, Government of Uttarakhand
Socio-economic Impacts on Local Communities
The share of agriculture in state GDP has fallen down from 14% in 2011–12 to approximately 10% in 2021 on account of several factors with climate change being the prominent one. Declining profits and growing climate uncertainties have been prompting small and marginal farmers from hilly districts to abandon agriculture and migrate to the plains in the pursuit of alternative livelihoods.
According to a study, farmers in the state are on the verge of experiencing endemic poverty and food insecurity with a whopping 63% of the population remaining food insecure in the hilly areas of Kumaon.
From biodiversity loss to dwindling agricultural productivity and poor living standards – climate change in the recent decades has significantly eaten into the mountain ecosystems of the Himalayas. Experts and scientists have been rooting for nature-based solutions, best practices and investments that build resilience, reduce vulnerability and increase the ability of mountains to adapt to daily threats and extreme climatic events.
Climate Change Food Security Food production in Uttarakhand
Adaptation is an essential line of defence in the climate battle. This section covers stories related to policies and plans that aim to reduce the vulnerabilities of both urban and rural populations to the changing climate
The impacts of global warming are now at our doorstep. This section covers stories of communities and regions that are battling extreme events, climate-induced displacement and migration, and coming up with innovative ways to adapt to their changing environment.
Adaptation Impacts Research Witness / Slow onset disasters
Fishing communities, restaurateurs, and researchers agree on the need for alternative ways to consume seafood to limit further stress on marine life. This is the concluding part of CarbonImpacts’s 2-part series on exploring solutions for sustainable food consumption patterns.
Impacts / Extreme Weather
In this episode, we unpack the recent extraordinary weather events that have been unfolding in the Indian state of Gujarat and beyond; leaving us wondering if this is becoming the new norm.
Assam, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Karnataka and Bihar are most vulnerable to extreme events like floods, droughts, and cyclones, according to CEEW’s Climate Vulnerability Index
As the world gathers in Glasgow to attend COP26, one of the most crucial issues for the climate talks will be to get developed countries to deliver on climate finance. For a country like India, these commitments by developed countries are even more crucial considering its vulnerability to extreme climate events.
According to a first-of-its-kind Climate Vulnerability Index (CVI) released by environmental think-tank Council on Energy, Environment, and Water (CEEW), more than 80% of Indians live in climate-vulnerable districts, while states like Assam, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Karnataka, and Bihar are most vulnerable to extreme events like floods, droughts, and cyclones.
Dhemaji and Nagaon in Assam, Khammam in Telangana, Gajapati in Odisha, Vizianagaram in Andhra Pradesh, Sangli in Maharashtra, and Chennai in Tamil Nadu are among India’s most climate-vulnerable districts, it stated.
The report titled, ‘Mapping India’s Climate Vulnerability’, revealed that 27 of 35 states and UTs are highly vulnerable to extreme climate events. It further highlighted that while the western and central zones are more vulnerable to drought-like conditions, the northern and northeastern zones are more vulnerable to extreme flood events. Additionally, the eastern and southern zones are becoming extremely prone to cyclones, floods and droughts combined.
The study, supported by the India Climate Collaborative and Edelgive Foundation, found that 463 out of 640 districts in India are vulnerable to extreme floods, droughts, and cyclones. More than 45% of these districts have undergone unsustainable landscape and infrastructure changes, it noted. Further, 183 hotspot districts are highly vulnerable to more than one extreme climate event.
The CEEW study also found that more than 60% of Indian districts have medium to low adaptive capacity. It also pointed out that only 63% of Indian districts have a District Disaster Management Plan (DDMP). While these plans need to be updated every year, only 32% of them had updated plans until 2019, it noted. However, highly vulnerable states like Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Odisha, Karnataka, and Gujarat have improved their respective DDMPs and climate-proofed critical infrastructure in recent years, it said.
According to Germanwatch, a German non-profit environmental group, India is the seventh-most vulnerable country with respect to climate extremes. A previous analysis by CEEW suggested that three out of four districts in India are extreme event hotspots, with 40% of the districts exhibiting a swapping trend, which means traditionally flood-prone areas are witnessing more frequent and intense droughts and vice-versa. Further, the IPCC stated that every degree rise in temperature will lead to a 3% increase in precipitation, causing an increased intensification of cyclones and floods.
In a few days, world leaders will meet in Glasgow to discuss action plans to combat the climate crisis. At COP26, developed countries must regain trust by delivering the $100 billion promised in 2009 and commit to stepping up climate finance over the coming decade, said Arunabha Ghosh, CEO, CEEW. Further, India must collaborate with other countries to create a Global Resilience Reserve Fund, which could act as insurance against climate shocks, he added.
The study recommended developing a high-resolution Climate Risk Atlas to map critical vulnerabilities at the district level and better identify and assess acute risks such as extreme climate events, heat and water stress, crop loss, vector-borne diseases and biodiversity collapse. It also suggested that restoration of climate-sensitive landscapes will act as natural shock absorbers against extreme climate events. Further, integration of climate risk profiling with infrastructure planning is imperative for protecting the existing and planned infrastructure projects.
Abinash Mohanty, Programme Lead, CEEW, and lead author of the study, said, “The frequency and intensity of extreme climate events in India have increased by almost 200% since 2005. Our policymakers, industry leaders and citizens must use the district-level analysis to make effective risk-informed decisions. Climate-proofing of physical and ecosystem infrastructures should also now become a national imperative. Further, India must create a new Climate Risk Commission to coordinate the environmental de-risking mission.”
risks
0-If we look at state-level data, Kerala tops the rain deficiency with 46%, followed by Bihar and Jharkhand, which are also highly deficit by 35 and 30%, respectively. These indicate significant rain deficiencies, painting a complex picture.
Ever since the beginning of August, the Monsoon has been weak, and this phase is known as a break-monsoon condition. The phenomenon of a break in monsoon typically occurs in July and August and lasts for about 1-2 weeks.
During these conditions, the Monsoon trough, which governs the rainfall over Northwest and Central India, moves closer to the Himalayas, limiting rainfall over hilly states and adjoining foothills.
Well, India is witnessing an extended break in monsoon conditions this time. August started on a weak rainfall note; after that, rains revived briefly around August 20 when the axis of the Monsoon trough had shifted a little south. But again, in the absence of any strong weather system over the north-central plains, the Monsoon trough moved back north along the Himalayas.
As a result, back-to-back heavy to extremely heavy rainy spells has been lashing Himachal and Uttarakhand for the last several days.
El Nino is the biggest nightmare for the Summer Monsoon season in India. Statistics show that 60% of the El Nino years result in below-normal rainfall. El Nino is gaining strength rapidly, and its impact on Monsoon is quite evident now. Experts say convection over India was suppressed due to heavy sinking motion. On the other hand, over the central Pacific, enhanced convection occurred due to ascending air. This resembles the classical impact of an El Nino.
According to data, during El Nino years, the chances of deficit rains of 20% or more in August are quite high at 47%.
Meteorologists cite tough days ahead as they do not expect any recovery in the Monsoon performance during the leftover days.
In fact, According to Dr Madhavan Rajeevan, Meteorologist and former chief at IMD, August 2023 could be the most deficient August in history, with around a 40% deficit. Now that’s worrisome for the country, which is already battling extreme weather events and uneven spatial distribution of rains.
The last time India witnessed a deficit in August with high rainfall deficiency was in 2005, with 25% less rainfall.
India’s nodal agency, IMD has already predicted below-normal rainfall for August.
Extreme WeatherMonsoon 2023