The wait for Southwest Monsoon 2023 will be a little longer for India, with a cyclonic storm Biparjoy developing in the Arabian Sea. The weather system is presently sustaining the strength of a very severe cyclone. According to meteorologists, atmospheric conditions and cloud mass are indicating that the system is likely to sustain the strength of a very severe cyclone till June 12.

According to the country’s nodal agency, India Meteorology Department (IMD), the system is likely to be more organized and may intensify up to a very severe cyclonic storm by June 9.

Image Credit: IMD

“Weather conditions are very ripe for the system to continue to gain more strength. With long sea travel ahead, Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are very warm, infusing more heat and moisture into the atmosphere. This would help the system sustain its strength for a longer period,” said GP Sharma, President- Meteorology and Climate Change, Skymet Weather.

“The oceans have become warmer already on account of climate change. In fact, recent study shows that the Arabian Sea has warmed up by almost 1.2 degree Celsius since March, thus conditions are very much favourable for the rapid intensification of the system so it has potential to sustain the strength for a longer period,” said Dr Raghu Murtugudde, Professor, department of atmospheric and oceanic science, University of Maryland and IIT Bombay. 

Image Credit: Dr Raghu Murtugudde and Baosheng Li 

According to the report, Changing status of tropical cyclones in the north Indian Ocean, the frequency, duration, and intensity of cyclones in the Arabian Sea have increased significantly. The intensity of cyclones also has increased in the Arabian Sea, by about 20% (post-monsoon) to 40% (pre-monsoon). There has been a 52% increase in the number of cyclones in the Arabian Sea, while very severe cyclones have increased by 150%.

Further, there has been an 80% increase in the total duration of cyclones in the Arabian Sea during the last two decades. The duration of very severe cyclones has increased by 260%.

Cyclone Biporjoy and Monsoon 2023

IMD had predicted the onset of the Monsoon on June 4 with an error margin of +/- 4%. The onset of the Monsoon over the Indian landmass of Kerala is declared after meeting the three meteorological criteria. Rainfall over 60% of the given 14 stations in Kerala should be more than 2.5 mm for two consecutive days. Secondly, the depth of westerly winds along with the value of Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR), which is the energy emitted by the Earth’s surface, oceans, and atmosphere into space should be below a certain value in the given area.

According to IMD, the weather conditions are gradually becoming favourable for the onset of the Monsoon. All the required features are getting aligned. However, with cyclone Biparjoy brewing in the Arabian Sea, meteorologists have already warned against a thumping onset over Kerala.  

“Looking at the location of the likely cyclonic storm, there are chances that Monsoon might make the onset around 8-9 June but it will not be a loud or strong one. Clouds and rainfall are the visible manifestation of the arrival of the Monsoon, which will be satisfied during the process of intensification of the cyclone. Hence, the onset will be there but a subdued one. However, it would definitely be detrimental to the progress of the Monsoon and the strengthening of the Monsoon stream,” said G P Sharma.

“An exceptionally warm Arabian Sea, a weak monsoon onset, and favourable Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) conditions in the Indian Ocean are favouring this cyclone. With this, it would not be the case of classic Monsoon onset, satisfying all the given criteria. We would have scattered rains along the West Coast strip but no inland penetration and widespread rains,” said Dr Roxy Mathew Koll, Climate Scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology and Lead IPCC Author.

Dr Koll further added, “We are presently witnessing weak Monsoon winds, and under such circumstances, a cyclone develops favourably in the Arabian Sea. If the southwest Monsoon current is strong, winds blow in two directions – southwest in lower levels and northeast in upper levels. This would not allow the weather system to rise vertically and form into a cyclonic storm. However, when the Monsoon is weak, the cyclone can develop vertically as it can cut through the winds and move upwards.”  

Role of Climate Change

The increase in cyclone activity in the Arabian Sea is tightly linked to rising ocean temperatures and increased availability of moisture under global warming. The most recent example is Cyclone Mocha, which went up to the intensity of a very severe cyclone.

Cyclone Biparjoy has seen intensification even faster as it covered the journey from a cyclonic circulation (June 5) to a Severe Cyclonic storm in less than 48 hours (June 7).

According to experts, there has been an increase in the frequency of cyclones developing near the onset of Monsoon, for instance, Cyclone Tauktae. The rise in cyclogenesis in the Indian Ocean has been the result of weakened Monsoon circulation triggered by climate change.

“Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) usually remain high during this time of the year. However, presently they are 2-3 degrees higher than the usual warmer temperatures. This means there is more heat and moisture in the atmosphere, which helps cyclonic storms to maintain their strength for a longer period. The threshold value for the formation of a cyclone is 26 degree Celsius, but at present SSTs are in the range of 30-32 degrees Celsius. This rise can be attributed to a rise in the ocean heat due to climate change,” said Roxy Koll.   

The accumulated cyclone energy in the Arabian Sea has almost tripled. Accumulated cyclone energy is a measure of the total wind energy during a cyclone’s lifetime. The translation speed of cyclones (the speed at which cyclones move) has decreased in the Arabian Sea. This means that cyclones are now moving slowly, which means increasing the threat quotient. As the cyclone becomes more marked, it moves slowly over the sea. And, more sea travel means more moisture feed for it to maintain its strength.   

According to a report, Assessment of Climate Change over the Indian Region, most models project a higher SST warming in the Arabian Sea than the Bay of Bengal. The observed surface warming over the Indian Ocean has been linked to natural and anthropogenic (human induced) causes. Climate model simulations show that over 90% of the Sea Surface Temperature trend since the 1950s is very likely due to increased anthropogenic emissions, while the remaining is due to internal variability. Among the anthropogenic causes, change in radiative forcing due to the increased greenhouse gas concentrations is the major factor. Radiative forcing is a measure of the difference between incoming solar radiation and outgoing terrestrial radiation in the Earth-atmosphere system. The intensity of tropical cyclones (TC) is closely linked to ocean Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) and heat content, with regional differences in their relationships. With continued global warming, the activity of very severe cyclonic storms (VSCS) over the North Indian Ocean (NIO) is projected to increase further during the twenty-first century.

According to IPCC report on Ocean, Cryosphere and Sea Level Change, at the ocean surface, temperature has, on average, increased by 0.88 [0.68 to 1.01] °C between 1850–1900 and 2011–2020, with 0.60 [0.44 to 0.74] °C of this warming having occurred since 1980. The ocean surface temperature is projected to increase between 1995 to 2014 and 2081 to 2100 on average by 0.86 [0.43 to 1.47, likely range] °C in SSP1-2.6 and by 2.89 [2.01 to 4.07, likely range] °C in SSP5-8.5. Since the 1950s, the fastest surface warming has occurred in the Indian Ocean and in the western boundary current. The intensity of severe tropical cyclones would increase in a warmer climate.

Adaptation is an essential line of defence in the climate battle. This section covers stories related to policies and plans that aim to reduce the vulnerabilities of both urban and rural populations to the changing climate

Recurrent heatwaves have greater socio-economic impact in India than previously known. A study published in PLOS Climate suggested that heatwaves made more likely by climate change may impede India’s progress toward its sustainable development goals.

India has committed to achieve 17 United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDG), including no poverty, good health and well being, decent work and economic growth. However, the study found that current climate vulnerability assessments may not fully capture how heatwaves linked to climate change may impact SDG progress. Heatwaves in India are increasing in frequency, intensity and lethality, burdening public health, agriculture, and other socio-economic and cultural systems.

In order to analyse India’s climate vulnerability and how climate change may impact SDG progress, researchers conducted an analytical evaluation of India’s heat index (HI) with its climate vulnerability index (CVI). CVI is a composite index using various indicators to account for socioeconomic, livelihood, and biophysical factors.

For this, the researchers accessed a publicly available dataset on state-level climate vulnerability indicators from the Indian government’s National Data & Analytics Platform to classify severity categories. The researchers then compared India’s progress in SDG over 20 years (2001-2021) with extreme weather-related mortality from 2001-2021.

The researchers found that heatwaves have weakened SDG progress more than previously estimated and that current assessment metrics may not sufficiently capture the nuances of India’s vulnerabilities to climate change impacts. For instance, in estimating HI, the study showed that nearly 90% of the country is in danger zone from heatwave impact. According to CVI, around 20% of the country is highly vulnerable to climate change. Similar effects were observed for the country’s Capital city, where HI estimates showed almost all of Delhi is threatened by severe heatwave impacts, which is not reflected in its recent state action plan for climate change.

Additionally, Andhra Pradesh is in extreme danger in HI, affecting SDG 3 (good health and well-being) and SDG 15 (life on land). However, these SDGs are considered moderate in the CVI classification.

For West Bengal, in the same extreme danger HI range, the SDGs that are most critical and will be severely affected are SDG 3 (good health and well-being), SDG 5 (gender equality), SDG 8 (decent work and economic growth) and SDG 15 (life on land). In this case, the CVI suggests that these SDGs were already stressed in the state. With heatwaves, their fulfilment can further get challenging. Apart from heatwaves, the state is highly vulnerable to flooding and tropical cyclones.

The authors of the study said, “This study shows that heatwaves make more Indian states vulnerable to climate change than previously estimated with the CVI. The heatwaves in India and the Indian subcontinent become recurrent and long-lasting, it is high time that climate experts and policymakers reevaluate the metrics for assessing the country’s climate vulnerability. This offers a scope for developing a holistic vulnerability measure through international cooperation and partnership.”

The authors added that heatwaves are getting more intense in India, putting 80% of the country’s people in danger, which remains unaccounted for in its current climate vulnerability assessment. If this impact is not addressed immediately, India’s progress towards achieving sustainable development goals will be slowed down.

Heatwave in IndiaClimate Change

June 16, 2013 could be counted as the blackest day in the history of Uttarakhand, when the swollen Himalayan rivers ravaged thousands of lives, human settlements, livestock and agricultural land down the stream. The tourism and hospitality sector, which contributes a major chunk to Uttarakhand’s GDP, collapsed completely.

A decade has passed since the tragedy, but unfortunately, that has not changed anything in the state. Given the fragile nature of Himalayan mountains amidst changing climatic conditions, extreme weather events have only increased in the last 10 years across the state, be it flash floods, landslides, soil erosion or forest fires on account of increasing heatwaves. Following are the incidents that have been time and again bringing back focus on the urgent need for resilience and adaptation measures for Uttarakhand.

Forest Fire 2016: The 2016 Uttarakhand forest fires were a series of widespread wildfires that took place between April and May across Pauri Garhwal, Almora and Chamoli districts. The fires were caused due to prolonged dry weather and high temperatures triggering severe heatwave conditions. These fire incidents were the worst recorded in the region as the raging fires reportedly destroyed 4,538 hectares (11,210 acres) of forest and seven people dead. Almora, Chamoli, Nainital, Pauri, Rudraprayag, Pithoragarh, Tehri, and Uttarkashi were declared the worst affected areas as they abound Cheed and Sal trees which are highly inflammable. Forest fires in Uttarakhand also severely affected the wildlife reserves across the state like Rajaji Tiger Reserve, Kedarnath Musk Deer Sanctuary, Corbett Tiger Reserve, and Kalagarh Tiger Reserve.

Forest Fire 2020: The forests of Uttarakhand went on a burning spree that began in October 2020 and went on for the next six months. According to statistics, 989 fire incidents were reported in the forests from October 1,2020-April 4, 2021, destroying around 1,297.43 hectares. 470 incidents of fire were solely reported between November 2020 and January 2021, against 39 incidents reported during the same period in the previous year. This not only burnt away the forests but also destroyed India’s precious carbon sinks at a time when the country is already battling with rising climate impacts.

Chamoli Disaster, February 2021: On February 7, 2021, an avalanche along with a piece of glacier came apart from the nearby Ronti Peak triggering flash floods in Chamoli district of the Uttarakhand. A wall of debris and water barrelled down the Ronti Gad, Rishiganga and Dhauliganga river valleys, sweeping away what came in the way. The huge mass of snow, water, boulders and silt slithered down Rishiganga, first damaging a 13 MW private hydel project and then flowing down to Dhauliganga river to swamp NTPC owned 520 MW Tapovan-Vishnugad hydropower project. The tragedy claimed killed 26, while 171 were reported missing.

Flash floods in Raini Village, June 2021: On June 14, Rishiganga river had swollen due to torrential rains for three consecutive days, causing soil erosion from underneath the Raini village. Raini Village was home to India’s most famous forest conservation movement ‘Chipko Aandolan’. This led to big cracks in several houses, instilling fear among the villagers. Reportedly, a large portion of Joshimath-Malari road beneath Raini village caved in, cutting off more than a dozen border villages of Chamoli district. The Alaknanda river had been eroding the river bank and shifting closer to the village with every incident. According to the disaster management officials, the lower areas of Raini village that house around 55 families were not fit for human settlement. Raini that once got global recognition for ecological consciousness is now fighting for its existence.

Flash floods and landslides, October 2021: Flash floods wreak havoc across Uttarakhand in October 2021, on account of the delay in withdrawal of the Monsoon. The state recorded a whopping 192.6 mm of rainfall against 31.2 mm. Out of this, 122.4 mm of mm was recorded in span of 24 hours. Reportedly, around 52 people lost their lives on account of heavy rainfall and a series of landslides. The worst affected district was Nainital that saw the highest death toll of 28 deaths. The onus of these untimely showers over the state can be attributed to the extended stay of the Southwest Monsoon 2021 over the country. The presence of Monsoon current over the region means the presence of abundance of moisture over the landmass, keeping weather conditions favourable for the formation of the weather systems, bringing rains across the state. According to meteorologists, weather systems do not usually travel inland, especially over the places like Uttarakhand from where Monsoon has retreated. However, the presence of Monsoon Madhya Pradesh invited low pressure areas to travel deep inside the land, giving untimely rainfall.

Joshimath Subsidence, January 2023: Hundreds of houses and roads in Joshimath developed cracks due to land subsidence. Authorities declared it a landslide and subsidence-hit zone. Unsurprisingly, the evidence of such an occurrence was established way back in 1976 when the M C Misra Commission report explained how the town was developed over unstable remains of a landslide and the lack of a concrete rock base made it vulnerable to dissidence. Repeated scientific studies by government authorities and accredited institutes have reiterated that unplanned development, the lack of drainage systems, blasting for infrastructure projects etc will only put the town at high risk, especially since it is situated on seismic zone V and highly vulnerable to earthquakes. However, it seems that all warnings were ignored and unchecked construction activities, rapid urbanisation, building of roads, dams and hydel projects powered on irrespectively.

Global warming, anthropogenic activities, poor response mechanism and inadequate disaster planning have deepened the crisis. It would not be wrong to say that Uttarakhand is an apt example of a ticking time bomb, giving a warning of challenges in preserving India’s fragile ecosystems.

Climate ChangeDisaster in UttarakhandForest Fires in Uttarakhand Uttarakhand FloodsKedarnath Floods 2013

Early and intense heatwaves may hit the southern part of the county as it falls in the region under combined impact of heightened temperatures exacerbated by global warming and ongoing El Nino conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, the DTE reported. The report said  parts  of Africa, southeast Asia, central America, Europe and Asia are also witnessing a rise in temperatures, with some even undergoing heatwaves much earlier than normal. 

The outlet reported that in southern India maximum temperatures are 4-8 degrees Celsius above normal, the worst affected areas are in western and central Maharashtra, Rayalaseema in Andhra Pradesh and northern Karnataka, according to India Meteorological Department (IMD) data for February 10 and 11, respectively.  While the heat is rising in southern parts of the country, north India continues to experience below-average temperatures and even coldwaves in some areas — a trend that began in January, DTE report said.

As ice melts polar bears face food scarcity, starvation threat: Study

According to a new study some polar bears are facing starvation as melting sea ice is forcing them to live on land, where they are unable to adapt their diets. The iconic Arctic species mostly eat ringed seals that they catch on ice floes offshore. But as the ice disappears in a warming world, many bears are spending greater amounts of time on shore, eating bird’s eggs, berries and grass. However the animals rapidly lose weight on land, increasing the risk of death, reported the BBC. The fall in bear population since the 1980s was mainly due to hunting, the report says adding: “With greater legal protection, polar bear numbers have risen. But increasing global temperatures are now seen as their biggest threat. That’s because the frozen Arctic seas are key to their survival. The animals use the sea ice as a platform to hunt ringed seals, which have high concentrations of fat, mostly in late spring and early summer. But during the warmer months many parts of the Arctic are now increasingly ice-free.

According to the NYT the researchers fitted 20 bears with video-camera collars in Manitoba, Canada, which is below the Arctic Circle at the southern end of the animals’ range, in order to study their hunting behaviour. It says: “Nearly all the bears followed in the new study lost weight, and two individuals were on track to starve before the sea ice returned.”

Ocean currents regulating Earth’s climate ‘on course to a tipping point’

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a large system of ocean currents that helps keep temperatures in western Europe milder, “may already be on course to a tipping point”, according to a study covered by Independent and many other outlets. The AMOC plays a key role in regulating Earth’s climate by transporting heat from the Equator towards the poles. But as global temperatures rise due to warming, freshwater is pouring into the system from the melting ice from Antarctica, Greenland and other sources, risking disruption to the circulation patterns that drive the AMOC. While current observational records are too short to make a reliable estimation, there are early warning indicators suggesting ‘we are moving in the direction of the tipping point, researchers said. Once the Atlantic Ocean circulation collapses, the resulting climate impacts are nearly irreversible on human timescales, researchers warned. An abrupt shutdown of Atlantic Ocean currents that could put large parts of Europe in a deep freeze and other regions experiencing accelerated warming and altered precipitation patterns. is looking a bit more likely and closer than before as a new complex computer simulation finds a ‘cliff-like’ tipping point looming in the future, AP reported. 

the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), ocean currents key for global climate regulation.  is already on track towards an abrupt shift researches alerted about impending breakdown using computer models and past data They found AMOC is already on track towards an abrupt shift, the Guardian reported.

Snowless December, Jan may lead to extreme heat in March and April in north India? 

Vanishing snow accompanied by rain in western Himalayas in the peak winter (December 2023 and January 2024) will result in  heat waves in March and April and heavy rainfall in the pre-monsoon season over northwest India, experts have told Down To Earth (DTE). As a result Rabi crops will deplete further in the region that is already grappling with low production since the past few years leading to food insecurity.

DTE reported that from January 1 to January 23, six states in northwest India have received no rainfall. Himachal and Uttarakhand received 99% less rain than normal, and the rest have also received next to no rain. Rajasthan has recorded a rainfall deficit of 88% and Uttar Pradesh of 73%, DTE reported. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD) a lack of active western disturbances have resulted in the extreme lack of precipitation (80% less than normal for December) in the Western Himalayan region.

Himalayan treelines might be climbing higher in response to climate change

Mountain ranges across the world are experiencing a warming climate which is pushing tree lines further north. According to a new study of the Trans-Himalayan region in Nepal and Hengduan Mountains in China, the former is experiencing rapid shifts in treeline, with younger trees growing further up the mountains, reported Mongabay adding that  changes in treeline elevation may disrupt the delicate balance of the hydrological cycle, affecting water availability downstream as snow and ice melt patterns change, the researchers said.

Mongabay quoted studies showing that in the Himalayan region, temperatures are rising more than the global average, with fewer cold days and more warm days, making ecosystems there vulnerable to climate change. These mountain environments, characterised by low temperatures at higher elevations, create limitations on tree growth. However, the intricate interplay between temperature and water availability, driven by precipitation gradients, means that predicting treeline shifts based solely on temperature changes is overly simplistic and may not fully reflect the complex reality.

Above normal temperatures forecast for India’s wheat areas

India’s major wheat-growing areas in the north, as well as other parts of the country, could experience above normal temperatures in February which may reduce yield , the India Meteorological Department (IMD) warned. This may force India to import wheat to keep the prices stable which so far the government has resisted as it would irk farmers ahead of a general election, expected by April, Reuters reported.

Monthly maximum temperatures for February are likely to be above normal over most parts of northwestern India, IMD office said adding that temperatures are also likely to be above normal over western central India and some parts of eastern central India, he said.

No consensus over timeline of release of influential climate science reports at IPCC talks

During IPCC talks in January in Istanbul, countries were divided over when to all the UN to release their highly anticipated and influential scientific reports assessing the state of climate change by the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).  Saudi Arabia, India and China were opposed to the proposed dates when the scientific body would provide its assessment for the next global stocktake, the UN’s scorecard of collective climate action, due in 2028, according to sources reported by Climate Home News which added that the developing countries argued the accelerated programme would force to complete the scientific process “in a hurry” and would not leave enough time for developing countries to review the output.

The IPCC met in mid january to decide the work programme for its seventh assessment cycle, which officially started in July 2023 with the election of its new chair Jim Skea.

Ahead of the talks, the UNFCCC officially requested that the scientific body align its activities with the timeline of the next global stocktake. But sticking to a 2028 deadline would mean either fast-tracking its work or shortening the IPCC’s entire cycle from seven years down to five years. Small island nations, least developed countries and some rich countries favoured this option, Climate Home reported.

‘DR Congo floods leave more than 2 million in need of aid’

The United Nations International Children’s Emergency Fund said over 2 million people, 60 percent of them children, need humanitarian aid due to the floods in the last two months in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. People are at risk of the worst cholera outbreak in years, the UN said.

The Congo River, the world’s third largest by water discharge volume, has reached levels unseen in more than 60 years due to exceptionally intense rains in 18 of the 26 provinces of the country, the largest in sub-Saharan Africa. Rainfall has caused floods that have destroyed or damaged almost 100,000 homes, 1,325 schools and 267 health centers, the fund said in a statement.

The report said crops have failed in waterlogged fields, raising the prospect of food shortages in some places. Forecasters have warned of more rain, raising the possibility that cholera, which spreads in flooded areas, could spread from areas where it is endemic across the Congo River to the northern city of Kisangani and then to Kinshasa. Congolese capital.

WIldfires: Colombia declares a disaster, calls for international help

As forest fires spread across Colombia, the country has declared a disaster. Experts say the wildfires are the result of “hot and dry conditions linked to the El Niño weather phenomenon”, Colombian president Gustavo Petro has called for international assistance for what he has described as “climate crisis”. Colombia has put out 204 fires in January and over a dozen continue to burn. Reuters reported that, in a study earlier this week, “climate change has been blamed for driving a record drought that has hit all nine countries in the Amazon basin – including Colombia”. 

The article was first publishes in CarbonCopy

Climate Change Global Warming Heatwave in India El Nino

Impacts   Witness   /  Extreme Weather

Climate Risk Index 2025 ranked India as the sixth most affected country in the world due climate change-triggered extreme weather events from 1993 to 2022, causing losses up to USD 180 billion and at least 80,000 fatalities.

“Significant areas of glaciers in the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region are retreating at an alarming rate,” according to a study recently published by the Observer Research foundation. The report Retreating Glaciers and Water Flows in the Himalayas: Implications for Governance,  authored by Anjal Prakash, research director at the Bharti Institute for Public Policy, Indian School of Business and an IPCC lead author, builds on an extensive review of scientific literature on the water and ice balance in the region.  The report further examines the relationship between glacier decline and the changing surface water and groundwater regimes in the HKH region.

The HKH region, which is an intricate 3,500-km network of mountains, is home to some 54,252 glaciers, with a total area of 60,054 sqkm and projected ice reserves of 6,127 km³. Although only 1.4% of the HKH region is glaciated, the total ice stocks are roughly equal to three times India’s annual volume of rainfall . The region provides freshwater supply to 1.5 billion people living within its folds and in downstream regions in eight countries through thousands of springs and river systems, including some of the world’s largest, fed by glacial melt.

“The HKH region is characterised by a unique hydrogeology, in which springs play a pivotal role. In many parts of HKH, springs are drying up due to prolonged periods of pre-monsoon drought as a result of climate change, threatening the whole way of life for local communities and downstream areas,” says Vishal Singh, executive director of Center for Ecology Development and Research, an action-research NGO based in Dehradun.

Feeding a webwork of rivers

A 2012 study that modelled changes in the hydrological regime in the range estimated that for the upper Indus basin, glacier melt may contribute up to 41% of the total run-off; 13% in the upper Ganga basin; and up to 16% in the upper Brahmaputra. It further added that these rates are higher in the critical dry spring months, when other sources of runoff are scarce. While there is significant disparity between estimates of glacier melt contributions in different river systems, decreasing trends of snow and ice cover in most of the region have been unambiguous.

Major river basins originating in the Hindukush Himalayas

 One such study, published in 2011, which confirmed the declining trend in snow cover, also observed that the critical elevation zones between 5,000m to 7,000m would be the most sensitive to climate change. Slight changes in temperatures at these elevation zones — particularly around the threshold of freezing/melting point — could cause a significant change in the snowmelt.“ It is not only the snow-covered regions, but also the snow depth and the amount of water stored in the snow packs which will impact melting, and this consequently influences the river flow systems and water resources availability that cause substantial changes in the river flows and water resources in spring systems,” the study notes.

With extreme weather added to the mix, the picture gets infinitely more complicated. The recently released review also makes note of changes in seasonal extremes, increased evapotranspiration, and changes in glacier volume.  These changes vary across the Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra river basins. In the Indus, the marked effect is on meltwater; for Ganges, the effect is on runoff that is expected to increase; and for the Brahmaputra, climate change may result in enhanced flood risk. In all three basins, though, there is likely to be a decrease in snow and a rise in glacier melt by mid-century according to the review. Initially, there will be an increased amount of meltwater available, but this quantity will decline abruptly as the glacier storage falls.

 The impact of climate change on Himalayan surface and groundwater Interaction

The first signs of impending changes are already visible in HKH’s groundwater resources, notes the recently released review. Groundwater squeezing and seeping through rocks as springs form the main source of water supply to rural and urban hamlets in the entire Himalayan range. Over the years, spring resources in the Himalayas have declined owing to increasing pressures of population, demand and technology. Changes in rainfall patterns and a poor legal policy framework pose further challenges for managing groundwater resources.

These studies, as pointed out by Prakash, show that increased glacier melt might lead to extensive flooding downstream. But gradually, as glaciers continue to retreat and diminish, the amount of meltwater flowing into rivers could decline considerably and abruptly.

Since surface and groundwater systems are interconnected, such a situation may lead to a substantial drop in the rates of groundwater recharge in some regions. Combined with changes in summer monsoon rainfall and surface water flows, it could cause huge water stress in many parts of the HKH region and affect the river basins that relate to the Himalayan glaciers.

A growing concern

The decline of springs has recently become a key source of concern given that a significant population in the mid-hills across the HKH region depends on springs for daily needs. The Koshi river basin shared by Nepal and India exemplifies the risks of groundwater decline in the region. The drying up of 36% of the groundwater springs in a catchment in the basin over the past 20 years has translated into severe water scarcity in more than 60% of the villages dependent on the catchment. Food production, by extension, has declined by 25%, as have the livelihood prospects in traditional forestry and agriculture.

 Increasing evidence  

There has been a recent increase in research seeking to make a connection between the decline of glaciers and climate change, focusing on surface water regimes.

A longitudinal study undertaken for 11 years in two watersheds in the mid-western Indian Himalayan hills in Uttarakhand collected data using automated rain gauges in select sites of the river basins. It measured daily spring flow in all the springs used by residents. The analysis showed that there is a high correlation between precipitation events and spring flows. In a comparable location of the western Himalayan region, another study  observed that the spring flow during rainy and non-rainy seasons is affected by rainfall and recharge area types.

 Uneven impacts

In lower altitudes, the decline in glacial mass balance is not going to affect the systems severely until the middle of the century. After 2050, however, the changes in climatic conditions will likely begin to affect the springs systems, reducing their recharge and flow. In the higher altitudes, these changes will emerge earlier, altering the water flow in rivers and springs.

But even as groundwater levels continue to fall in several locations across the HKH, connections between glacier declines and larger water regimes and human demands are still lacking. According to Prakash, “The interactions between glacial declines and the water regimes — especially the groundwater recharge — remains an understudied subject.  A synchronised planning for the refurbishment of water in the region is absent. The HKH region is trans-boundary in nature, with watersheds spread across various countries therefore a regional approach is necessary for the protection of the HKH’s interconnected systems.”

What is India doing to tackle the issue?

Some Indian states in the region, such as Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh, seem to be cognisant of the problem and have taken the first steps towards addressing it. SK Lepcha, former Indian Forest Service officer and a member of consortium working on springshed management in Uttarakhand, told Carbon Copy, “There are 22 representatives hailing from state government, central government and various organisations, who are running a pilot project in reviving some 120 dried springs in Uttarakhand in order to increase ground water recharge. Some 57 springs were revived last year and some 33 this year, but work has come to a standstill due to COVID-19.”

Dr. Savita, head of the Forest Force in Himachal Pradesh, said, “The government is working on some projects to resolve the water shortage due to various factors caused by climate change. This includes enhancing ecosystem services under the JAICA project in collaboration with Japan and taking up micro-irrigation for agriculture and horticulture. Intensive plantation, digging of trenches and the cultivation of mixed forests are some of the other works being undertaken for the same objective.”

But some experts are of the opinion that while minor or fragmented projects are better than no action at all, a more planned effort is required to tackle the issue. Dr. Vishal Singh says, “The Uttarakhand government has no comprehensive development plan dedicated for augmentation of water recharge in order to adapt to the water crisis posed by glacier receding and climate change. There are few organisations who have joined hands with the forest department for pilot projects in the past decade but they have not given desired results. For instance, 90% of the 300 springs in Almora district have already dried up. Still, development projects like Char Dham road widening are not protecting the springs.”

“The HP government has incorporated the subject of augmentation of water recharge in its state action plan for climate change, but the government has failed in its effective implementation and outreach programme,” says Rajan Kotru, former regional programme manager, (Transboundary Landscape) with The International Centre For Integrated Mountain Development, who is now running his own environment organisation in Himachal Pradesh.

“There is no one mega project that the state government has undertaken to tackle the imminent water crisis across the state, involving the line departments and other related organisations, which is quite unfortunate.”

A united effort required

While local communities grapple with the crisis, the issue is still largely falling on deaf years on the national stage. Dr Arun Kansal, head, Regional Water Studies, TERI School of Advanced Study said, “Spring sheds did not receive much attention in the National Water Policy of 2012 and water-related policies in subsequent years as well. Climate change triggered glacier retreats pose a big threat to sustainability of springs, which is beyond the control of local communities to manage.”

Dr. Anamika Barua, professor of economics at  IIT Guwahati, who works on the transboundary water issues in the HHK region, says the region must unite and bring the issue to the fore. “The region must come together and jointly approach the issue with technical and scientific knowledge for better management of the vital water resource both ground and surface water of HKH region, as Prakash’s paper has highlighted.”

Ever heard of the boiling frog? A chilling myth used to illustrate how creatures (including humans) tend to ignore slowly worsening dangers until it’s too late.  It describes a frog failing to perceive the danger of slowly heated water as it boils to death, unlike the frog thrown in boiled water that jumps right out. A poignant metaphor for the often-unnoticed but profound changes occurring beneath the surface of the Indian Ocean, where not just surface temperatures, but the entire water column up to 2000 meters is experiencing rapid warming.

Currently, the heat content of the Indian Ocean is increasing by about 4.5 zetta-joules per decade. This rate is expected to accelerate, reaching between 16–22 zetta-joules per decade in the future. Roxy Mathew Koll of the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, delves into the evolving climate of the Indian Ocean and its future projections, and  highlights the severity of this issue, stating, “The future increase in heat content is comparable to adding the energy equivalent of one Hiroshima atomic bomb detonation every second, all day, every day, for a decade.”

Just like the proverbial frog, the creeping but extreme heating of the Indian Ocean might suggest we’re nearing a critical boiling point.

The rapid transformations of the Indian Ocean

For many years, the world’s oceans have acted as Earth’s lifeline against climate change, absorbing about a quarter of human-produced carbon dioxide and approximately 90% of the excess heat. However, recent signs suggest that this vital buffer is under strain. Over the past year, alarming signs have emerged, particularly in the ocean’s surface temperatures.

Surrounded by 40 nations and encompassing a third of the world’s population, the Indian Ocean region plays a crucial role in global climate dynamics. Its climate shifts have profound societal and economic consequences. This area is now recognized worldwide as having the highest risk for natural disasters, leaving its coastal communities particularly susceptible to severe weather and climate-related events.

The Indian Ocean is undergoing rapid transformations. Here are the key changes you need to know:

I. Rapid Warming 

The Indian Ocean has been getting warmer and is expected to heat up even faster in the coming years. From 1950 to 2020, the ocean’s temperature rose by about 1.2°C per century. Scientists predict it could warm by 1.7°C to 3.8°C per century from 2020 to 2100. While the whole ocean is heating up, the northwestern part, including the Arabian Sea, is experiencing the most intense warming. In contrast, the areas off the coasts of Sumatra and Java in the southeast are warming less dramatically.

As the ocean heats up, several changes occur: Marine species may migrate to cooler waters, coral reefs can suffer from bleaching, and the frequency of extreme weather events like cyclones could increase. Warmer water expands, and melting ice from glaciers and ice sheets adds volume to the ocean, both of which contribute to rising sea levels. This can lead to coastal erosion, increased flooding, and impacts on coastal communities. In the context of the Indian Ocean, as the Arabian Sea region is experiencing the most intense heating, the coral reefs in the Lakshadweep Sea have undergone severe bleaching due to prolonged marine heat waves since October 2023. As per research at the CMFRI coral bleaching threatens Lakshwadeep’s diverse marine ecosystems.

Source: Future projections for the tropical Indian Ocean Study

II. Near-permanent marine heatwave 

Periods of extremely high ocean temperatures can last for days to months and can devastate marine environments. Currently, these heat waves occur about 20 days a year, but they could rise to 220-250 days annually. This means the tropical Indian Ocean could almost always be experiencing a heatwave. Marine heatwaves becoming more frequent and intense is behind coral bleaching, loss of kelp forests, and disrupted fisheries.

Species that are sensitive to temperature changes may migrate to cooler waters, altering marine biodiversity. This can affect fishing industries and the communities that rely on them for food and economic activities.

Additionally, thermal expansion of water contributes to more than half of the sea level rise in the Indian Ocean. These conditions can also cause cyclones to strengthen very quickly, potentially escalating from mild storms to severe cyclones in just a few hours.

Source: Future projections for the tropical Indian Ocean Study

III.  Dipole & Disruption of Seasons

A phenomenon that can explain the swings in water temperature in the Indian Ocean, is the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). This phenomenon influences the monsoon rains and how cyclones form in the region. By the end of the 21st century, extreme swings, where one side is much hotter than the other, are expected to happen 66% more often. On the other hand, the milder, more moderate swings are likely to decrease by 52%. The pattern of ocean surface temperatures is expected to change significantly, which could lead to more extreme weather in the Indo-Pacific region. Previously, from 1980 to 2020, the highest average temperatures in the Indian Ocean stayed below 28°C throughout the year. However, by the end of the 21st century, under a scenario of high emissions, even the lowest temperatures will exceed 28°C year-round, reaching between 28.5°C and 30.7°C. Temperatures above 28°C can trigger more intense storms and heavy rainfall. Since the 1950s, there has already been an increase in severe cyclones and heavy rainfall events, and these are expected to become even more frequent as the ocean continues to warm.

IV. Ocean Acidification 

By the end of this century, it’s predicted that the ocean’s pH will drop from above 8.1 to below 7.7. To understand how significant this change is, consider this: a tiny 0.1 drop in the pH level of human blood can cause severe health issues, even organ failure. Similarly, even a small change in ocean acidity can be harmful to marine life, especially for corals and shellfish that need more stable conditions to build their shells and survive. This shift could have huge impacts on marine ecosystems and the animals that live in them.

Source: Future projections for the tropical Indian Ocean Study

V. Ocean’s Declining Productivity

The Indian Ocean’s ability to support life is decreasing. Specifically, the amount of chlorophyll and net primary productivity (the rate at which plants and algae produce organic compounds from carbon dioxide) are both expected to decline. This reduction is particularly significant in the western Arabian Sea, where the decrease could be about 8–10%. This decline in marine productivity affects the entire food chain, from the smallest plankton to the largest whales, and can have widespread impacts on marine ecosystems and the fishing industry that relies on them.

A climate change hotspot

These are significant alterations and when such transformations occur slowly over time, they can become normalized to the point where urgent issues are overlooked until they become severe and irreversible. This is particularly relevant as we consider the rapid transformations underway in the Indian Ocean—a region now recognized as a critical climate change hotspot. Researcher Thomas Frölicher emphasizes that “The Indian Ocean, a climate change hotspot, faces rapid and strong increases in marine heatwave frequency and intensity unless global CO2 emissions are substantially cut.”

To turn the tide against climate change in the Indian Ocean and confront these challenges, a comprehensive approach is essential. Reducing global carbon emissions, developing resilient infrastructure, sustainable practices to conserve marine ecosystems, and strengthening forecast systems,  are some of the critical steps towards mitigating the impacts of climate change on coastal communities. The uncertain future of the Indian Ocean’s vital ecosystems and the livelihoods of millions of people who depend on them in the face of escalating climate change is not a distant problem for future generations but an immediate crisis affecting us now. 

This article is based on the recent study titled Future Projections for the Tropical Indian Ocean. The study was authored by Roxy Mathew Koll, Saranya J. S., Aditi Modi, Anusree Ashok from the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune; Wenju Cai from CSIRO, Australia; Laure Resplandy from Princeton University, USA; Jerome Vialard from Sorbonne Universités, France; and Thomas Frölicher from University of Bern, Switzerland.

Link to the study

Indian Ocean Climate Change Heatwave Global Warming

July 3, 2023 was declared as the hottest day globally ever recorded, according to climate scientists, based on data from the US government’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction. The average worldwide temperature on Monday was recorded at 17.01°C, surpassing the all-time high record of 16.92°C, which was reported in August 2016.

According to latest analysis, the global mean temperature on July 3 was about 0.8°C hotter than the average for the time of year during the late 20th Century, a time when global temperatures had already been warmed by human activities.

In fact, global temperature spiked further on July 4, making it unofficially the hottest day. According to the University of Maine’s Climate Reanalyzer, the earth’s average temperature soared to 17.18°C on Tuesday against 17.01°C on Monday.

Not only this, June 2023 shattered all records and became the hottest June globally, with abnormally high temperatures recorded on both land and sea. According to the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service on June 6 reported that the average temperature in June was 0.5°C above the mean temperature for the same month in 1991-2020. Antarctic sea ice reached its lowest extent for June on record at 17% below average.

There has been a consensus among the world climate scientists over attribution to climate change behind the rise in global temperatures and the building up of oceanic phenomena like El Nino which is contributing to the rise in the mercury. However, this recent spike in climate change extremes has failed to surprise scientists. Experts across the world showed grave concern and warned of the worst days ahead if human-induced global warming continues to go unchecked.

“This is not a milestone we should be celebrating, it’s a death sentence for people and ecosystems. And worryingly, it won’t be the hottest day for a long time. With El Niño developing, the world will likely break this record again in the coming months. We absolutely need to stop burning fossil fuels,” said Friederike Otto, Senior Lecturer in Climate Science at the Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment.

“The record global temperature was the result of climate change, caused by burning fossil fuels and other human activities, combined with the emerging El Nino weather pattern. It doesn’t stop here and the record may be broken again over the coming weeks,” according to Dr Robert Rohde, lead scientist at Berkeley Earth, a US non-profit climate research organisation.

Citing similar fear, Karsten Haustein from University of Leipzig cautioned that not only a single day but entire July could set a new record. “Chances are that July will be the warmest ever, and with it the hottest month ever: ‘ever’ meaning since the Eemian which is some 120,000 years ago. While Southern Hemisphere temperatures will drop a bit in the next few days, chances are that July and August will see even warmer days yet given that El Niño is now pretty much in full swing. In terms of absolute positive anomaly, it’s not the warmest deviation ever – that usually comes in the Northern Hemisphere winter, during which Earth is 4 degree colder.”

The recent IPCC reports have already reported that the global temperatures have not been as high as they are now for 125,000 years.

Extreme weather around the world

There has been steep surge in the temperatures across the world. As a result of increasing heat stress, extreme weather events have been reported from several parts of the world.

On July 3, Texas and large parts of the southern US witnessed very high temperatures linked with a heat dome. According to the analysis by Climate Central, human-induced climate change made such temperatures at least five times more likely.

Canada is witnessing worst wildfires in its history, with more than 8.4 million hectares already burned. This accounts for an area larger than the United Arab Emirates (UAE), the host of this year’s climate conference. Triggered by extreme temperatures, the smoke of the fires has affected the air quality of large parts of the country and the US.

China is in double whammy as it continues to battle various climate change impacts simultaneously. While long-lasting heatwave continued with temperatures soaring above 35°C, some parts reported major floods. Climate change made the heatwave at least five times more likely, according to rapid assessment by Climate Central. On July 2, the country announced that the first half of 2023 had seen a new record of days with temperatures over 35°C, the highest since 1961, when record keeping began.

Temperatures in North Africa approached 50°C, as a heatwave continued – with climate change again having been a major factor.

Ocean temperatures around the British Isles and the Nordic countries continued to be high, although slightly cooler than in previous weeks, when an extreme marine heatwave had threatened marine life.

The Antarctic region also reported very high temperatures, with many stations recording temperatures on the positive side despite the winter season. The Vernadsky station broke its July temperature record, with 8.7ºC.

In India, an intense heat wave across Uttar Pradesh had led to a number of deaths in Ballia. According to an analysis by Climate Central, the heatwave was made two times more likely due to climate change. With temperatures soaring to nearly 45°C, between June 15 and 20, a total of 80 people admitted to the district’s only hospital have died. While most of the admitted patients had fever, fatigue, shortness of breath, high blood pressure and other symptoms of heat wave-borne diseases, the excessive heat appeared to have exacerbated the condition of those with comorbidities as well. Meanwhile, data from Deoria Medical College, UP, revealed that between June 1 and June 18, 133 people were brought dead to the hospital. As per a report, 14 people lost their lives in Jharkhand between June 17 and 18. In Bihar, local media reported that more than 40 people had died due to heat since May 31, but state officials denied this.

Climate ChangeGlobal WarmingHottest day in the world

“Safe and adequate drinking water through individual household tap connections by 2024 to all households in rural India” – this is the ambitious mission statement of the current Indian government’s flagship water management programme, Jal Jeevan Mission (JJM). The scheme is a continuation of the previous government’s National Rural Drinking Water Programme (NRDWP).

With hotly contested elections looming large over several states and a central government fire-fighting on multiple fronts, the water crisis seems to be that one unifying factor that affects a majority of the population irrespective of ‘background’. A 2024 deadline, therefore, maybe ambitious, but is necessary for this government. 

The Modi government seems confident of winning the race to provide ‘Har Ghar Jal’ – it claims to have provided tap water to over 3.77 crore rural households since the mission’s launch in August 2019. But just how sustainable is this mission in the long term?

It’s now or never

Central government-funded schemes promising rural water supply are not new in India. A National Water Supply Programme was initiated in 1954 to provide safe drinking water to all villages. Since then, governments over the years have made several attempts to fulfill this promise, including the first National Rural Drinking Water Programme (NRDWP) launched in 1972. But what sets JJM apart from previous attempts is the sense of urgency.

According to the Central Water Statistics 2015, roughly 820 million people in India, living in twelve river basins across the country, have per capita water availability around 1000m³— the official threshold for water scarcity. And the situation seems to be on the precipice of a crisis. As per the 2017 National Commission on Integrated Water Resources Development (NCIWRD) report, India’s average per capita water availability, which currently stands at 1545m3 (2011 assessment), is likely to fall to 1341m³ by 2025 and further to 1141m³ by 2050, putting the country officially on the brink of water scarcity. Availability is one thing, access is another. Latest updates from the Jal Shakti ministry show that over 62% of India’s rural households, or a whopping 117.5 million households, still don’t have piped water connections. Forecasts included in the Composite Water Resources Management report published jointly by NITI Aayog and the Jal Shakti Ministry in August 2019 state that by 2030, India’s demand will outgrow water supply two to one.

Source: Jal Shakti Ministry (as reported on 24 March 2021)

When JJM was first launched more than two years ago, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced ₹3.5 lakh crore will be spent in the next five years. His seriousness to tackle the issue was more than evident in the latest budget, which earmarked ₹50,000 crore for the scheme. Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman also announced the expansion of the scheme to include urban households.

A scheme that holds water?

A quick glance at the mission’s guidelines shows the government is certainly headed in the right direction. JJM promises to strengthen existing water sources, build new pipelines and retrofit older networks in a bid to provide at least 55 litres of potable water to each person daily. It also promises to set up treatment plants wherever necessary – for example, desalination plants in coastal areas. It promises to provide source sustainability measures in groundwater-rich areas. “This is also perhaps the first time that the government has clearly acknowledged and outlined the threat of climate change to the mission as part of the SWOT analysis,” says Romit Sen, associate director, Water and Agriculture, Institute for Sustainable Communities.

The JJM divides implementation of its objectives across three levels. The first is the Village Action Plan (VAP) to be prepared by the Gram Panchayat and approved by the Gram Sabha. Then comes the District Action Plan (DAP), which combines all the VAPs to prepare its own plan. And the third is the State Action Plan (SAP), which takes into account the DAP and aims to achieve water security across the state by finding ways to discourage the use of tankers and handpumps in villages.  

So far so good. But dig a little deeper and the loopholes begin to be unearthed.

Good on paper only?

From a climate adaptation perspective, JJM is definitely much-needed with the increasing number of extreme climate events such as flooding. A recent study by the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW) found 75% of Indian districts are now extreme climate event hotspots. The study found that in the past 15 years, 79 districts recorded extreme drought events year-on-year, exposing 140.06 million people annually. The yearly average of drought-affected districts increased 13 times in this period. “The programme is definitely a positive from a user point of view,” says Sen.

So why are these schemes not working despite repeated attempts to improve upon them over a span of several years? “JJM itself is not very new,” says Surabhi Singh, research analyst at CEEW. “The arrangement and the delivery mechanism of the previous NRDWP is very similar to JJM (rural). A CAG report on the previous scheme had even flagged some core issues, chief amongst which was – even if we put drinking water mechanisms in place, how do we ensure source sustainability. Another issue that was flagged was operation and maintenance [O&M].”

The implementation method, which includes the VAP, DAP and SAP, had also come into question, Singh says. “This process has not been followed by state governments because it is a very tedious and resource-intensive process, for which most states don’t have the capacity.” This can be seen in the CAG report for the NDRWP, which stated 21 states did not frame water security plans and deficiencies were found in the preparation and scrutiny of Annual Action Plans (AAP).

Another loophole is that in order for the VAPs to remain relevant and effective, they need to be revised on a seasonal or yearly basis, which has not been mentioned in the JJM guidelines, says Singh. 

The continued dependence on groundwater-rich regions also is a cause for concern. India is the largest groundwater extractor in the world – around 250 cubic km every year. According to a 2018 report by the Ministry of Water Resources, over extraction is the reason why there was a 61% decline in groundwater between 2007 and 2017. “Instead of depending on groundwater alone, we need to pay equal emphasis on recharging groundwater through rainwater harvesting, reusing and recycling water for non-potable purposes, and restoring traditional water bodies. More importantly, we need to manage water as a common pool resource,” Singh says.

Climate variations not accounted for

“As part of the VAP, villages are supposed to come up with water budgets for their area. They need to take into account the water demand, which includes their agriculture water demand. They also have to give data on the amount of rainfall in the area. But rainfall varies spatially and temporally, so there is no way to give precise data,” says Singh.

When it comes to taking into account climate change-related variability, Singh says the country doesn’t have avenues to collect or observe such granular level data. “The best we can do is account for temporal and spatial variability in rainfall instead of observed rainfall data. But this has not been explained in the VAP.”

Sen, however, points to the fact that JJM looks to find customised solutions for different ecological areas such as coastal zones and cold deserts. “That in itself is a recognition that a one-size-fits-all approach will not be relevant for India where there are temporal and spatial variations as well as variations in quality and quantity.”

Schemes driven by observations, not data

A recent study published in the Official Journal of the World Water Council found the rural water planning schemes in India were not data driven. They lacked the means to map, collect and analyse data for service delivery and O&M, the study found. Using a water sector reform programme that is supported by the World Bank and is currently underway in Maharashtra, called the Jalswarajya II (JS2), as a case study, the researchers came up with a mobile application that democratised data collection. It allowed village leaders (gram sevaks) to collect data with easy-to-use data feeding options, such as drop-downs. The collection was divided into two sections – the physical aspects such as groundwater availability and percentage of household tap connections; and the O&M aspects such as recovery of water user charges and the effectiveness of Village and Water Planning Committees.

The app then gave each survey response a score from 1 (best) to 5 (poorest), thus making it easier to zero in on villages that need to be prioritised the most. This data was then mapped using a GIS map to form spatial patterns that helped identify trends and issues. This method also cut down on time taken to collect data – a village-level sevak will need to do this for just half an hour, once a year. While the case study was limited to four districts, the Maharashtra government is looking to scale up the use of this approach across the state.

A data-driven planning framework, therefore, would give the government a bird’s eye view of the areas of concern and a better shot at finding long-term solutions.

Too many schemes, very little communication

Another drawback, according to Singh, is that apart from JJM, there are a myriad of other water schemes already in play in the country. Some of them include Jal Shakti Abhiyan – which encourages citizen participation in order to conserve water – the Catch the Rain campaign – which focuses on rainwater harvesting – the Atal Bhujal Yojana – which aims to facilitate sustainable groundwater management, and MGNREGA which also looks into water conservation. “There is no coherence in these schemes,” says Singh. “So one village may have the water supply infrastructure, but won’t have rainwater harvesting.” Conservation and management of water, therefore, takes a serious hit. Singh points to JJM’s guidelines, which mention a financial convergence of all these schemes, but there is no mention of planning and operational convergence.

Such schemes, however, are definitely working in smaller states, such as Goa, where implementation is easier, says Singh. But larger states such as Uttar Pradesh and Bihar are lagging far behind and convergence, therefore, is key to getting them back on track.

The way forward

A look at the budgetary allocations for JJM reveal that while a lot of money is going into infrastructure development, not a lot is being spent on Research and Development (R&D) and capacity building.

JJM guidelines also include the use of ‘energy-efficient’ small desalination plants in coastal areas. But while the intent is great, there is no evidence of what these might be or look like, says Sen. “Ultimately, when we talk of certain technologies, there is a cost recovery attached to it along with their efficiency and O&M. So do we know what kind of desalination systems will work? This could perhaps be an area where investing money into R&D will help.”     

A 2020 CEEW report emphasised the need for sectoral water reallocation in order to achieve JJM’s goals. According to the report, while rural water supply was 7 billion cubic metres (BCM) in 2010, India will need an additional 18 BCM to meet the demand in 2030 and 45 BCM for 2050. The report suggested that “by reallocating irrigation water from local reservoirs to villages and facilitating groundwater in blocks that are safe to exploit, India could potentially realise this goal not just for rural households, but also those in urban and peri-urban areas”.  

Sen speaks of the role that a water user also plays in the sustainability of a mission like JJM. “The government is making a large investment in ensuring water supply. But users also need to consciously change their behaviour. A sustained campaign that also talks about behaviour change, which doesn’t just focus on monsoon months, but runs throughout the year, is needed. You can install taps and ensure source strengthening, but if users don’t learn and make efforts to consciously manage water, such missions completely defeat their purpose.”

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